A new report by Public First, produced in collaboration with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and commissioned by RenewableUK, warns that ongoing reliance on internationally-traded gas has left the UK over-exposed to global price shocks, fiscal risk and hostile state activity.
The report finds that although the UK’s energy system is resilient, this comes with a heavy price tag for consumers due to unpredictable spikes in the costs of fossil fuels.
The report highlights the importance of investing in and safeguarding the UK’s domestic energy supply as a national security priority, recognising that there are unique benefits to renewables playing the leading role in maintaining a resilient low-cost power system.
The findings draw on a detailed wargame exercise involving experts from COBRA-level emergency planning, the National Energy System Operator (NESO), National Grid, National Gas, the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, oil and gas companies and renewable energy developers. The authors also conducted interviews with specialists from the Ministry of Defence, NATO and the Alan Turing Institute.
New threats and new tools:
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Across a wide range of scenarios in the wargame – including geopolitical conflict, extreme weather and infrastructure disruption – the UK continued to supply electricity to households and businesses. However, exposure to global gas markets quickly pushed up bills, leading to increased public spending and political and fiscal uncertainty that could be weaponised by hostile states.
The report recognises the ongoing role of the UK’s North Sea gas production and the role of gas storage. However, it concludes that domestic gas alone cannot protect the UK from international price volatility, because gas prices are set on global markets regardless of where the gas is produced.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the UK spent £50 billion supporting consumers, while renewable power supported by fixed-price Contracts for Difference returned money to consumers over the same period. Analysis by University College London estimates that renewables deployment has already saved UK consumers over £100 billion since 2010 by lowering electricity prices and reducing exposure to volatile gas markets.
UK consumers have faced at least eight major gas price spikes over the past ten years, from weather-driven events like the 2018 “Beast from the East” through to outages in foreign supplies (such as an unplanned outrage at a major Norwegian gas processing plant in 2024) and geopolitical events such as the current conflict in the Middle East.
New analysis from Aurora Energy Research also shows that as gas markets have become more international, prices have become more volatile month to month, even in the absence of major shocks. When gas prices were more regionally determined, between 2012 and 2019, the typical monthly price spread averaged around 28p per therm. By 2024 and 2025, that figure had risen to over 50p per therm – almost double – underlining how exposure to global gas markets increasingly feeds straight through to volatile household bills.
Crucially, the wargame also showed that a power system built around renewables — supported by storage and flexibility — is more resilient against physical disruption than a fossil-fuel based system. Wind and solar generation is spread across the country, meaning there are fewer single points which could be targeted than in a system reliant on centralised plants.
The report concludes that as geopolitical shocks, extreme weather and cyber threats become more frequent, energy security must be treated with the same seriousness as defence capability, supply chains and other critical national infrastructure.
Key recommendations include:
- Embed energy security firmly within national security planning.
The defence and security community should formally recognise energy system resilience as a national security asset. The UK should work with NATO allies to develop a framework in which investment in energy resilience can count towards collective defence spending commitments.2. Scale up storage.
The wargame highlights the critical role of flexibility in absorbing shocks. Rapid expansion of long duration electricity storage is essential to support a renewable led system, alongside strategic gas storage and spare parts to guarantee supply chain resilience.3. Harness consumers and businesses as part of the resilience solution.
Flexible tariffs and smart technologies and electrification can reduce system stress and costs.4. Treat cyber security as a frontline energy risk.
The exercise reinforces the need to draw renewables and fossil fuel assets fully into national cybersecurity frameworks, with stronger data sharing on cyber incidents and coordinated defensive responses.5. Strengthen international protection of critical infrastructure.
The UK should deepen cooperation with European partners to safeguard undersea cables and pipelines in the North Sea, recognising the growing threat from hostile state activity.
Commenting on the report, RenewableUK Chief Executive Tara Singh said: “Security experts are increasingly clear that the best way to protect the UK’s economy and national security is to make the most of our own home grown energy. Renewables are central to that because they reduce exposure to global shocks, help keep bills stable and make the system harder to disrupt, alongside the continued role of the North Sea and gas storage.
“This should not be a party political issue. Supporting domestic energy — clean and conventional — is about resilience, affordability and the national interest, and it needs to be treated as a cross party priority.”
The Royal United Services Institute’s Research Fellow on Energy Security Dan Marks said: “In this contested and turbulent geopolitical environment, the UK needs to change the way it thinks about its energy systems and markets. The country must focus intensively on moving from a high cost system with passive consumers and that is overly vulnerable to international oil and gas markets to a system that is secure, low cost, low emissions and embedded in a resilient society. The report shows that this means making best use of all the technologies available to create a flexible, decentralised system where demand is responsive and the country has control over enough of its own resources that consumers have some protection from the impact of supply chain disruption around the world.”
The report’s author, Public First Partner Daisy Powell-Chandler said: “The nature of warfare is evolving, and our defences must evolve with it. Alongside conventional military threats, the UK now faces a slower, quieter risk: deliberate financial destabilisation designed to sap confidence, constrain political choices, and weaken our ability to act.
“This report sets out why protecting our energy security is vital to protecting national security and how government policy should evolve to embrace new tools that can keep us all safe. In particular, we call for more energy storage, better use of surplus energy, improved data sharing about cyber threats, and stronger international cooperation to protect critical infrastructure.”
RenewableNI Director, Mark Richardson said: “Current geopolitical shifts illustrate there are previous certainties and guarantees that we can no longer take for granted. As such, we now have to take the urgent view that energy security is national security. Producing energy locally means we will be much less vulnerable to global events. That is clearly shown in today’s report.
“Every time there is an international conflict that affects the cost of fossil fuels, consumers pay the price. Keeping the lights on cannot and should not be based on households and businesses paying more and more to compensate for events they have no control over. We know that building more wind and solar farms, as well as long duration energy storage, will help keep energy prices stable while also creating a system that is much harder to disrupt. Figures released just this week show Northern Ireland avoided £219million in gas costs in 2025 due to renewable electricity.
“We have consistently viewed the need to transition away from fossil fuels as a strategic priority for economic and security purposes. Unfortunately, recent global events have brought that need into sharp focus once again. Implementing the key recommendations of this report whilst encouraging greater investment in renewables locally will help consumers in Northern Ireland.”
The Public First report is being published on the day of RenewableUK’s Cyber and Security 2026 conference in London.
For further information, please contact Robert Norris, RenewableUK Communications , Robert.Norris@RenewableUK.com or 07969 229913.
